Limiting Overshoot - Waste Management's Pathway to 1.5°C
- Only If We Act Now
Dipl.-Ing.(TU) Werner P. Bauer
On 2 September 2026, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published its new report, Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return. Its message is severe: exceeding the 1.5°C global warming threshold is no longer something we can assume will be avoided. The world is now heading towards an overshoot, potentially within this decade.
The report is not a declaration of defeat; it is a call to change the way we think about climate action.
Under current climate policies and measures, global warming is projected to reach around 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels. Even in a more optimistic scenario, in which countries fully implement their existing national climate plans and achieve their additional net-zero commitments, warming could still peak at around 1.8°C.
UNEP therefore describes a new pathway: "Overshoot, Peak and Decline.”
Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director said,
"Every fraction of a degree avoided and every year by which overshoot is shortened will save lives, protect ecosystems and reduce economic losses.”
She also highlights that
"We must deliver rapid and deep cuts to CO2 , methane and other greenhouse gases immediately. … decisions taken now and in the next few years will determine whether viable options remain to reverse warming towards 1.5°C. So, I call on governments—and on everyone with the power to effect change—to act with urgency and determination. This is not the future we sought. A return to 1.5°C is not assured. But limiting the magnitude, duration and consequences of overshoot, while preserving the possibility of bringing temperatures back down, is the best remaining option to protect vulnerable people, reduce losses and secure a livable future for all”.
Regarding to Waste Management an excerpt from the report on page 50 on methane reads:
"Urgent reductions in methane and other short-lived climate pollutants are needed, … Methane contributes around 0.5°C of current global warming (IPCC 2021; UNEP 2025c) and early reductions can significantly lower peak warming while delivering health co-benefits (McKeough 2022; Smith and Mathison 2024; UNEP 2025c). Early mitigation requires combined supply- and demand-side action.”
Waste management role in the overshoot pathway:
The transition towards a lower-emission waste system is not only about recycling rates, waste prevention or circularity — important as all of these are. It is also about managing the climate impact of the waste that still exists after RRR.
That means reducing the amount of biodegradable material going to landfill wherever possible. It means improving waste segregation. It means preventing food waste. And where landfill remains necessary, it means capturing methane effectively and managing sites in ways that minimise emissions. These are practical measures that can be implemented / started today.
These measures may not, on their own, determine the future of the global climate. But that is precisely the point of the UNEP report: climate change is determined by the cumulative effect of many actions across many sectors.
UNEP's proposed response therefore rests on three interconnected pillars: aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions; the removal of COâ‚‚ from the atmosphere; and massive investment in adaptation.
Methane reduction sits firmly within the first of these pillars — and waste management is part of that equation.
The remaining choices still matter
The difference between 1.8°C and 2.6°C is enormous. So is the difference between a brief overshoot and decades of elevated temperatures. Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions avoided today reduces the scale of the challenge tomorrow.
Inger Andersen's warning is worth keeping in mind: "A return to 1.5°C is not assured.”
That uncertainty makes action more urgent, not less.
The climate challenge has changed. Our response must change with it.
Werner Bauer
Comments:
Hi Werner,
Best wishes for your WC project. Already very impressive!
Best wishes for your WC project. Already very impressive!
08.09.2026 14:45:00
Dear Jimmy, Dear Michael,
It’s a pleasure to read your feedback on our WasteCulture Insight and to see how you exchange ideas about the African Summit in 2027. As I’ve already discussed with Michael, we’ll need a venue, a date, and—if possible—the city’s support to get started. I’m happy to take the next step and will invite all Country Leads to an initial meeting in the middle of the month. I am sure that there are lots of ideas coming together. At WasteCulture, we want to use our resources to support, in particular, activities that contribute to the development of local waste management. We have a number of ideas in this regard.
Let’s get together.
And thank you so much for your kindness and commitment.
It’s a pleasure to read your feedback on our WasteCulture Insight and to see how you exchange ideas about the African Summit in 2027. As I’ve already discussed with Michael, we’ll need a venue, a date, and—if possible—the city’s support to get started. I’m happy to take the next step and will invite all Country Leads to an initial meeting in the middle of the month. I am sure that there are lots of ideas coming together. At WasteCulture, we want to use our resources to support, in particular, activities that contribute to the development of local waste management. We have a number of ideas in this regard.
Let’s get together.
And thank you so much for your kindness and commitment.
04.09.2026 15:03:04
Thank you, Olusegun Michael Ogundele, for the thoughtful invitation and for highlighting the urgency of moving from discussions and reports to concrete action. I fully agree that the timing and scale of our response are critical, particularly given the growing waste challenges facing African communities.
The proposed African Waste Management Summit 2027 is a timely and important initiative. I would be pleased to contribute to the scoping and preparations and explore how we can collectively strengthen sustainable waste management, circular economy approaches, and recognition of the waste value chain across Africa.
I look forward to further details as the collaboration with WasteCulture takes shape. Together, we can turn knowledge into meaningful action and lasting impact.
The proposed African Waste Management Summit 2027 is a timely and important initiative. I would be pleased to contribute to the scoping and preparations and explore how we can collectively strengthen sustainable waste management, circular economy approaches, and recognition of the waste value chain across Africa.
I look forward to further details as the collaboration with WasteCulture takes shape. Together, we can turn knowledge into meaningful action and lasting impact.
04.09.2026 11:57:08
Dear Werner,
Thanks so much for sharing the newsletter, and for the given opportunity to read the insightful report by UNEP.
The entire message in the UNEP report is entirely relevant just as Jimmy Owiti right mentioned. But beyond the relevance and appropriateness of the report, one thing that I believe it sacrosanct is how, and when we take actions. The consequences of these problems are far huge to us in the African communities. And that is why we are putting up the premier AFRICAN WASTE MANAGEMENT SUMMIT in the Summer of 2027. And we want to appreciate WasteCulture for agreeing to jointly organise this Summit with us.
I would love to urge Jimmy to also join us in putting this Summit together. Further details will be shared across the WasteCulture network once we finalise the Summit scoping with WasteCulture.
Thanks so much for sharing the newsletter, and for the given opportunity to read the insightful report by UNEP.
The entire message in the UNEP report is entirely relevant just as Jimmy Owiti right mentioned. But beyond the relevance and appropriateness of the report, one thing that I believe it sacrosanct is how, and when we take actions. The consequences of these problems are far huge to us in the African communities. And that is why we are putting up the premier AFRICAN WASTE MANAGEMENT SUMMIT in the Summer of 2027. And we want to appreciate WasteCulture for agreeing to jointly organise this Summit with us.
I would love to urge Jimmy to also join us in putting this Summit together. Further details will be shared across the WasteCulture network once we finalise the Summit scoping with WasteCulture.
04.09.2026 00:38:13
Dear Werner,
Thank you for sharing this important and timely insight. The UNEP report is a strong reminder that every year of delayed climate action increases the scale of the challenge, but also that meaningful emission reductions remain possible.
I agree that waste management has an important role in limiting climate overshoot, particularly through reducing biodegradable waste sent to landfills, improving source segregation, preventing food waste, and strengthening methane capture. These measures can deliver immediate climate benefits while supporting resource recovery and the circular economy.
From a Kenyan and broader African perspective, the message is especially relevant. Many countries are still developing the infrastructure and systems needed to manage waste sustainably. This creates an opportunity to invest in solutions that reduce methane emissions, improve public health, create dignified green jobs, and avoid long-term dependence on uncontrolled disposal.
A key question is: How can the UNEP overshoot pathway be translated into practical, affordable waste management investments for Africa and other developing economies, particularly where financing, infrastructure, and institutional capacity remain major constraints?
WasteCulture can play an important role in connecting global knowledge with local realities and supporting collaboration on climate-smart waste management.
Thank you for continuing to highlight the critical link between waste management, methane reduction, and climate action.
Best regards,
Jimmy Owiti.
Thank you for sharing this important and timely insight. The UNEP report is a strong reminder that every year of delayed climate action increases the scale of the challenge, but also that meaningful emission reductions remain possible.
I agree that waste management has an important role in limiting climate overshoot, particularly through reducing biodegradable waste sent to landfills, improving source segregation, preventing food waste, and strengthening methane capture. These measures can deliver immediate climate benefits while supporting resource recovery and the circular economy.
From a Kenyan and broader African perspective, the message is especially relevant. Many countries are still developing the infrastructure and systems needed to manage waste sustainably. This creates an opportunity to invest in solutions that reduce methane emissions, improve public health, create dignified green jobs, and avoid long-term dependence on uncontrolled disposal.
A key question is: How can the UNEP overshoot pathway be translated into practical, affordable waste management investments for Africa and other developing economies, particularly where financing, infrastructure, and institutional capacity remain major constraints?
WasteCulture can play an important role in connecting global knowledge with local realities and supporting collaboration on climate-smart waste management.
Thank you for continuing to highlight the critical link between waste management, methane reduction, and climate action.
Best regards,
Jimmy Owiti.
03.09.2026 18:35:41
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