New OECD Report on Regional Plastics of the ASEAN Plus Three Region

The report warns of the staggering amount of mismanaged plastic waste generated and urges action to tackle this important problem.

Diana Butron

If no action is taken, it is estimated that plastic waste in the ASEAN Plus Three region will almost double by 2050. This report, Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia, highlights the main role of the region in the global plastic crisis and provides the necessary information for policymakers to radically reduce plastic pollution without compromising economic growth. Through ambitious policies, a 97% reduction of mismanaged plastic waste is possible.

According to the report, this region accounts for more than a third of the plastic leakage into the environment globally. Nine of the 13 countries in the region have adopted a national action plan on plastic pollution, while in four countries they are still under discussion. Recycling rates, enforcement, infrastructure, data systems, and capacity differ greatly across countries. Policies to curb demand, promote eco-design, extend product life, and integrate informal waste sectors are still underdeveloped in many places.

Plastic use in the region has grown very rapidly, from 17 Mt in 1990 to 152 Mt in 2022. Under current policies, it is expected to almost reach 280 Mt by 2050. More than half of this plastic is short-lived, like packaging, meaning it leads to rapid waste generation. In parallel, plastic waste generation has increased from about 10 Mt in 1990 to 113 Mt in 2022. Of all this waste, about 29% is mismanaged—uncollected, openly dumped, or burned—leaking 8.4 Mt into the environment each year. Mismanagement is higher for lower middle-income countries, with 70% or more of plastic waste unmanaged.

Future scenarios, if no policy changes occur, estimate that plastic use will nearly double and plastic waste will more than double from 2022, reaching 242 Mt by 2050. Mismanaged waste would increase from 33 Mt in 2022 to 56 Mt in 2050, of which 14 Mt would leak annually into the environment. The total stock of plastics in the aquatic environment would more than double, reaching 181 Mt.

The report includes a scenario with highly ambitious lifecycle policies, from product design to waste treatment. In this scenario, compared to the baseline, the region could reduce plastic leakage by more than 95%, reduce plastic use by 28%, reduce waste by 23%, increase recycling rates from 12% to 54%, and avoid more than 90 Mt of marine plastic pollution.

This scenario has a cost—an investment of USD 1.1 trillion by 2050 for the necessary infrastructure expansion, including waste collection, improving recycling infrastructure, reducing demand for single-use plastics, and integrating informal workers. The macroeconomic cost of the transition equates to a loss of 0.8% of GDP for the APT region. However, the burden is uneven, equating to a loss of about 2.8% of GDP for the lower middle-income ASEAN countries.

The report recommends a tailored approach for each country based on their economic capacity and waste management systems. Priority measures include:

Strengthening universal waste collection and safe treatment
Reducing demand for unnecessary single-use plastics
Designing products for durability and recyclability
Promoting circularity by improving sorting, integrating informal sectors, standardizing recycling, promoting the use of recycled plastics, and designing for recyclability
Implementing policies that ban or impose taxes on problematic single-use plastics, while strengthening enforcement and monitoring capacity
Enhancing regional and global cooperation

Sources

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