New Study: Methane Emissions from Europe’s Landfills

This study underscores the importance of strengthening data foundations and adopting consistent modelling approaches to support effective climate action in the waste sector.

Prognos

Methane emissions from landfills represent a significant and often underestimated climate challenge. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, with a higher Global Warming Potential. Given methane’s short atmospheric lifetime and powerful near-term warming effect, rapid mitigation can deliver substantial climate benefits.

Within the European Union, around 18 per cent of methane emissions in 2021 are reported to originate from solid waste disposal. Satellite-based studies suggest actual emissions may be significantly higher than reported.

The European Union (EU) has established a comprehensive policy framework to reduce landfilling, promote recycling, and strengthen the circular economy, and has set climate targets of a 55 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. Within this context, the waste sector is increasingly in focus. This is reflected in ongoing discussions on a ban on landfilling unpretreated mixed municipal waste and revisions to the Landfill Directive.

Kanadevia Inova commissioned Prognos and ifeu to analyse the timeframe and magnitude of methane emissions from landfilling and highlight data gaps to support evidence-based policymaking and accelerate methane-reduction efforts.  

Reducing methane emissions can slow the rate of near-term warming and "buy time”  

The following key findings were identified:

• Landfill methane emissions are significant, persistent over long periods, and highly sensitive to waste volumes, biogenic content and methane capture performance.
• Immediate action — reducing or banning organic waste from landfilling, accelerating circular-economy adoption, expanding capture systems — can significantly reduce emissions before 2050.
• In the Status Quo Scenario, with annual landfilling maintained at 2022 levels, annual landfilling remains constant at 2022 levels, the EU-27+UK is projected to generate 1515 million tonnes CO2e by 2130 (GWP100). Implementing the maximum ten per cent landfilling target for municipal waste alone can halve methane emissions, while a full ban or near-ban of municipal solid waste offers much larger benefits.
• Assessment of the Current Status trajectory — based on average changes from 2018–2022 — reveals a risk of missing key policy targets. Five of the eight focus countries (Greece, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and the Czech Republic) are currently not on track to reach the ten per cent landfilling target for municipal waste, indicating that current momentum is insufficient to achieve the corresponding methane reduction potentials.  
• Even when MSW landfilling declines, historical deposits continue emitting methane for decades, underscoring the need for long-term mitigation strategies. For example, in the Status Quo Scenario, 37 per cent of total emissions (562 Mt CO2e) will be released after 2050, when the modelled MSW deposited in landfills is stopped.  
• Data and methodological gaps remain a barrier to accurate tracking and effective policy design. Better datasets, improved parameter transparency, and enhanced monitoring (including satellite data) are essential.
• Methane reduction is a critical near-term lever to support the EU climate targets and achieve rapid climate benefits.

This study underscores the importance of strengthening data foundations and adopting consistent modelling approaches to support effective climate action in the waste sector.

Our approach

We developed together with our project partner ifeu a robust, scenario-based quantitative assessment of future methane emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) deposited in landfills across the EU-27+UK between 2022 and 2050, with emissions tracked through 2130. In addition to the EU-27+UK-wide analysis, country-specific assessments were conducted for the UK, Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Romania, and the Czech Republic.