Methane Emissions from Europe’s Landfills

Scenarios and Data Challenges

by Dr. Bärbel Birnstengel, Richard Simpson, Regine Vogt

Background 

Methane emissions from landfills represent a significant and often underestimated climate challenge. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and has a higher Global Warming Potential: Its greenhouse effect is 27 times that of COâ‚‚ over 100 years and 79.7 times over 20 years. Given methane’s short atmospheric lifetime and powerful near-term warming effect, rapid mitigation can deliver substantial climate benefits. Landfills accounted for around 11% of global anthropogenic methane emissions¹, making improved monitoring, modelling, and reduction strategies essential. Within the European Union, around 18% of methane emissions in 2021 originated from solid waste disposal². Satellite-based studies suggest actual emissions may be significantly higher than reported³.

The European Union (EU) has established a comprehensive policy framework to reduce landfilling, promote recycling, and strengthen the circular economy. These initiatives—anchored in the Waste Framework Directive (WFD)⁴, Landfill Directive⁵, Circular Economy Action Plan⁶, and the EU Methane Regulation (2024/1787)⁷—support the broader climate targets set under the European Green Deal⁸ and Fit-for-55 package⁹: a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. The waste sector is increasingly in focus, as evidenced by ongoing discussions on a ban on landfilling untreated municipal waste, revisions to the Landfill Directive, and debates over the inclusion of waste-to-energy in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)¹⁰.

Against this backdrop, the present study provides a robust, scenario-based quantitative assessment of future methane emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) deposited in landfills across the EU-27+UK between 2022 and 2050. The study also evaluates data quality, methodological consistency, and uncertainties using country-specific analyses, including detailed reviews of National Inventory Documents (NIDs) submitted to the UNFCCC¹¹. The objective is to improve the understanding of methane emissions from landfilling, highlight data gaps, and support evidence-based policymaking to accelerate methane-reduction efforts.

¹ _{Global Methane Emissions Initiative, 2010.}
² _{UNFCCC 2025a.}
³ _{Dogniaux et al, 2025.}
⁴ _{EC 2018b.}
⁵ _{EC 2018a.}
⁶ _{EC 2020.}
⁷ _{EC 2024.}
⁸ _{EC 2019.}
⁹ _{EC 2021.}
¹⁰ _{EC 2023a, EP 2022.}

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published: Prognos, 3|2026
Keywords: Landfilling, Methods, Analyses, Data, EU